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FLASH ALERT: INCREASED THREAT TO EVACUATION EFFORTS BY TERROR ATTACKS AROUND HAMID KARZAI AIRPORT

FLASH ALERT: INCREASED THREAT TO EVACUATION EFFORTS AND SOLDIERS BY TERROR ATTACKS AROUND HAMID KARZAI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT


Team: CENTCOM

Week of: Monday, August 22, 2021



Hamid Karzai International Airport, Kabul, Afghanistan[1]



The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) is issuing a FLASH ALERT to Afghanistan, the United States, and other countries with personnel and citizens in Afghanistan due to the increased threat by competing terrorist organizations, namely the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) and the Taliban as they vie for control. The current CTG threat matrix indicates that there is a HIGH PROBABILITY that ISIS-K will continue to threaten forces protecting Hamid Karzai International Airport (HKIA) and Afghan asylees waiting to be evacuated. The current CTG threat matrix also indicates that there is a HIGH PROBABILITY of additional attacks as ISIS-K exploits weak security at the airport. These assessments are based on warnings from British and Australian intelligence services of imminent attacks in the coming hours, days, and weeks.[2]


According to US officials, the “complex SBIED (suicide-borne improvised explosive device) attacks” occurred at the Abbey Gate of Hamid Karzai International Airport (HKIA) in Kabul, between the afternoon and early evening of August 26.[3] The gate is near the Baron Hotel, frequented by British nationals, and also where 169 Americans were rescued by helicopters on August 20, 2021. The second blast occurred near the hotel.[4] At approximately 2100 local time, reports began to emerge of a third blast in Kabul, but the Taliban attributed it to US forces destroying ammunition stores.[5] According to an Afghan Health Ministry official, 60 people were killed and 140 injured in the twin blasts.[6] Twelve US soldiers were killed in addition to three US marines; Taliban guards were also wounded. According to General Frank McKenzie, commander of US Central Command, the explosion occurred near or at the gate entrance while soldiers were searching Afghans before admitting them inside the airport.[7] The vast majority of the wounded and dead are highly likely to be Afghan men, women, and children.[8] Video footage of the attack’s immediate aftermath indicates that the civilian death toll is likely to increase considerably once emergency services evacuate survivors and identify the deceased. Some social media commentators posit that the death toll may exceed 200 people.[9] Likewise, US casualty numbers are expected to rise as more information becomes available. Multiple countries are now halting airlift evacuations due to the situation. The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the attack.[10]


Over previous days, warnings had emerged from Western capitals about a threat from Afghanistan’s Islamic State group affiliate.[11] The fact that so few Afghans heeded the warnings of the US and other security forces to stay away from the airport because of the imminent risk highlights the desperation and fear of a future under Taliban rule — thousands risked their lives for the opportunity to escape. ISIS-K is likely taking advantage of the crowded area surrounding the International Airport because of the concentration of both civilians and thousands of US military personnel. As a result of the high number of people within a single area, ISIS-K is likely able to target and affect a larger number of persons with a single attack. Locations with high concentrations of US personnel and other places wherein the US is focusing its evacuation efforts are at an elevated risk of attack; attacks here would be symbolic of the US' failure in the country. Recently released ISIS-K members are both the enemy of the Taliban and the US, so it is not surprising that they are taking this opportunity to induce mayhem. While ISIS-K appears to be a common enemy, it must be noted that ISIS-K and the Taliban are both responsible for killing US and Western troops in Afghanistan. While the two groups likely do not cooperate with each other, it is possible that the groups could find common ground in their dislike for US forces being in the country.


ISIS-K has been active in Afghanistan for many years and is responsible for a high number of deadly attacks, most often targeting Kabul, in recent months and years. Their ranks have been boosted by the Taliban’s decision to free prisoners during their blitz across the country. The attack demonstrates ISIS-K’s opportunism and its overall intentions, which likely include undermining the Taliban’s seizure of power and the US departure from Afghanistan in addition to exploiting the security vacuum left by the US military to regenerate and re-establish itself in the eastern region of the country. In response to the Taliban’s rapid ascendance, ISIS-K’s long-term goal with these bombings is likely to conduct a series of attacks in an attempt to topple the self-imposed Taliban regime — therefore, this attack is likely part of a grander agenda. Because some Taliban fighters are also among the casualties, this attack likely was to avenge the dozens of ISIS fighters who were killed by the Taliban during their prison breaks.


In the short term, it is highly likely that attacks will continue in and around Kabul airport over the coming hours, following reports of a high number of ISIS-K militants lingering in the area.[12] Furthermore, the continued presence of concentrated groups of civilians at the airport, particularly at the airport’s North Gate, has raised concerns of further attacks. In the past, ISIS-K has shown willingness to attack soft targets such as schools and hospitals which typically have less rigorous security protocols. Based on this knowledge of ISIS-K’s targets, CTG estimates that ISIS-K is likely to attack Kabul hospitals over the next 24 hours. Hospitals in central Kabul are especially overcrowded as a result of the twin attacks, meaning that existing security measures are stretched and there is a high footfall increasing the number of potential victims.


The future of Afghanistan is more ambiguous now with an increased likelihood of ISIS-K sectioning off a portion of Afghanistan to impose its form of governance and establish an expanded training ground. If ISIS-K pursues this initiative, the Taliban is highly likely to resist, in which case Afghanistan may likely descend into a turf war. Threats to the US homeland will likely increase with the potential resurgence of ISIS-K in Afghanistan given its usage as a location from which it can train, attract, and launch individuals for terrorist attacks. The withdrawal of US forces will likely enable ISIS-K to train and resurge with impunity. Furthermore, the success of ISIS-K in Afghanistan will likely reinvigorate global jihadist cells and present an increased homeland threat to the US as individuals will likely be inspired to enact attacks in the US or other Western nations.


As the airlift for civilians enters its final days, the US has stated it will use the remaining time to evacuate its own troops.[13] Due to limited evacuation capacities and as the US seeks to lower the risks of the exit operation, some Americans outside the vicinity of Kabul or the International Airport have been left to their own devices, given only written instructions as to how to reach the airport, as US troops are unlikely to actively seek US citizens to extract beyond the airport. The official number of Americans remaining in the country is approximately 1500, but it is likely to be higher because some travelers have not disclosed their travel or expressed interest in leaving Afghanistan to the US government. The US embassy has warned Americans for months to leave the country and it is possible that some of the remaining Americans are staying in Afghanistan to support their families or are unable to reach the airport. The fact that many Americans are still unable to access the airport may likely signify that tens of thousands of Afghans eligible for resettlement in the US and other countries will be left behind. As the US prioritizes extracting US citizens before the Tuesday, August 31 deadline, thousands of Afghan interpreters left behind are especially vulnerable to retaliation from the Taliban.


Until today, the withdrawal operation had not cost a single American life. The tone and manner of the American exit are likely to change now that there have been several US casualties. The explosion is also the country's first since the Taliban seized control of Kabul ten days ago and proclaimed its new government in full. Therefore, the Taliban’s response to this attack will demonstrate to the world the group’s approach and capability in dealing with such a crisis. The attacks may also benefit the Taliban by positioning them as Afghanistan’s lesser evil and convey the group as a legitimate defense against ISIS-K. In an unexpected move, the Taliban has condemned the bombings and US officials are working with the Taliban by sharing limited intel in order to monitor possible attacks and prevent further violence.[14] Allowing the US to complete its removal would likely be in both parties’ best interests. The Taliban is likely willing to aid the US in identifying and shutting down several roads leading to the airport in addition to providing general perimeter security. The Taliban is also likely to be committed to providing safe passage for evacuating Americans en route to the airport, albeit while still blocking Afghan civilians from accessing the same airport.


At the time of this report, US President Joe Biden is sticking to the Tuesday, August 31 deadline for withdrawal. However, the death of ten US service members will almost certainly elicit a US retaliation. Although the Biden Administration is unlikely to extend the US withdrawal over increased concern for US personnel’s safety, targeted airstrikes on ISIS-K key individuals should be anticipated. It is unclear whether the Taliban will cooperate with the US in the future to target and defeat ISIS-K, though it is unlikely given it is probable that the Taliban will not want assistance from the US or foreign forces after regaining control of the government. While it seems as if the Taliban will work with the US to monitor possible attacks, it is also possible that the Taliban had some involvement with this attack. While the involvement, if any, is unknown, it is unlikely to have come from Taliban leadership and the involvement is more likely to be linked to Taliban fighters that were in charge of the security checkpoints at the airport and allowed the suicide bomber to get closer to the US checkpoint.


This attack comes after multiple threat streams regarding imminent threats to evacuation efforts by ISIS-K, which prompted many countries to halt evacuations and urge their citizens to leave airport gates immediately. British intelligence agencies warned of an imminent attack by ISIS-K, and the US Department of State issued an alert advising Americans to leave three gates (Abbey, East, North) of the HKIA on Wednesday.[15] US President Biden had also been warned of a possible terror attack in Kabul, specifically from ISIS-K.[16]


All remaining 1500 US citizens in Afghanistan should remain extremely cautious and vigilant, and move to evacuation sites immediately.[17] Gen. McKenzie has maintained that additional threat streams are active, including rocket attacks, vehicle-borne IED attacks, and walk-in suicide attacks similar to the first attack.[18] US personnel remaining in Afghanistan and at the airport should also remain vigilant. US military personnel should remain cautious when interacting with individuals at checkpoints as there is the possibility of more suicide bombers. If the suicide bombers were able to make it to that checkpoint, there is a strong likelihood they could reach it again. While the Taliban has said it would protect American forces, US personnel should remain vigilant as some Taliban members may be inspired to attack US forces or possibly be ISIS-K sympathizers.


CONCLUSION


CTG assesses that the current threat of attacks against US, Western, and local civilians and government forces by the Taliban and other affiliated groups is HIGH. CTG also assesses that the current threat of territorial gains by the Taliban of the remaining government-controlled or contested controlled areas within Afghanistan is HIGH. The CENTCOM Team’s analysis indicates that the risk of increased violence focused towards civilians throughout Afghanistan is HIGH despite Taliban claims that civilians in Afghanistan will be safe from the violence. This assessment is based on the fact that the Taliban has consistently made claims of ensuring peace but has also consistently taken the lives of civilians. The probability of the Taliban taking US or Western civilians or personnel hostage is MEDIUM-HIGH. Attacks against remaining foreign troops are likely to continue.


If any individuals are interested in learning more about security measures to protect their facilities and personnel, please contact The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) by Telephone 202-643-248 or email info@counterterrorismgroup.com


The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) produces Worldwide Analysis of Threats Crime, and Hazards (W.A.T.CH) intelligence to deliver critical intelligence and investigation services to pinpoint and assess regional variations of global threats. We can provide you with the safety and protection needed to feel secure. No matter if it’s just one person or an entire organization, we can handle everything for your peace of mind. We are the present, and future solution to the ever-evolving global threat landscape. To find out more about our products and W.A.T.C.H. services visit us at counterterrorismgroup.com.


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[2] CBS News Special Report: Deadly bombings near airport in Kabul, Afghanistan, YouTube, August 2021, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uHU0aOVAurU

[3] Islamic State group behind deadly attack outside Kabul airport, U.S. official says, PBS News, August 2021, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/pentagon-confirms-blast-outside-kabul-airport-no-word-on-casualties

[5] Civilians, US troops among dozens killed in Kabul blasts, Al Jazeera, August 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/26/panic-grips-kabul-airport-as-evacuation-deadline-nears-live-news

[7] WATCH LIVE: Pentagon Spokesperson John Kirby and Gen. Frank McKenzie hold briefing on Afghanistan, PBS Newshour Youtube, August 2021, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5FBf3m0dhc&t=2s

[8] Attack on Kabul airport kills at least 13; airlift thrust into chaos, Reuters, August 2021 https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/western-nations-race-complete-afghan-evacuation-deadline-looms-2021-08-25/

[11] UK sees very credible threat of imminent IS Kabul airport attack, Reuters, August 2021, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/very-credible-threat-imminent-kabul-airport-attack-uk-minister-2021-08-26/

[12] What is ISIS-K, the group that claimed responsibility for the Kabul attack?, CBS News, August 2021, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/isis-k-kabul-attack/

[13] What will the end of America’s evacuation of Afghanistan look like?, The Economist, August 2021, https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2021/08/26/what-will-the-end-of-americas-evacuation-of-afghanistan-look-like

[14] Latest from Afghanistan: Biden: 'We will not forgive' after 12 US service members killed in Kabul, USA Today, August 2021, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/08/26/afghanistan-news-kabul-evacuations-continue-pullout-deadline-looms/5592386001/

[15] Afghanistan: Attack could strike Kabul airport within hours, minister warns, CNN, August 2021, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-58337632

[16] 12 U.S. service members killed in explosions outside Kabul airport amid evacuations, NBC News, August 2021, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/high-threat-terror-attack-disrupts-kabul-airport-evacuations-biden-deadline-n1277670

[18] WATCH LIVE: Pentagon Spokesperson John Kirby and Gen. Frank McKenzie hold briefing on Afghanistan, PBS Newshour Youtube, August 2021, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5FBf3m0dhc&t=2s


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